S&P 500 rose after 21 midterms in a row: 3 things to know
Measured from October to June, the index rose after all 21 midterms from 1942 to 2022. Before 1942 it fell twice, and 2026 starts near a record high.
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Twenty-one times, and not a single fall. Since 1942 the S&P 500, which tracks 500 large US companies, has risen after every US midterm election. A ‘100% win rate’ like that sounds convincing, but what does it really tell us?
Midterms are the elections the US holds halfway through a president's term. The next one is on 3 November 2026, according to The National Desk.
Measured from the end of October to the end of the following June, the index rose 16.5% on average, according to SV News calculations from daily closing prices on Yahoo Finance. After reading, you will know how solid the streak is, three things it does not tell you, and five questions to ask before you trust a statistic like this.
The 21-midterm streak is real, but the gains vary widely
All 21 periods from 1942 to 2022 really did rise.
- Smallest gains: after 2014 (2.2%), 1946 (2.5%) and 1950 (7.3%).
- Largest gains: after 1942 (31.9%), 1954 (29.5%) and 1974 (28.8%).
- Most recent: after the 2022 midterm, the index rose 14.9%.
Studies that measure a longer window find the same pattern. The S&P 500 was higher 12 months after all 19 midterms since 1950, with an average gain of 15.1% and a median of 14.5%, according to Opening Bell Daily. The weakest was a 1.1% rise after 1986, a period that included the October 1987 crash.
Catch 1: the index fell twice before 1942
The streak starts in 1942, but Yahoo Finance's records for the index go back to the late 1920s.
Over the same months, the index fell 12.5% after the 1930 midterm, rose 16.2% after 1934 and fell 17.5% after 1938. Counted from 1930, the record is 22 rises in 24: still strong, but short of 100%.
So when a statistic says ‘since’ a particular year, check what happened before that year.
Catch 2: ordinary years usually rise too
Stocks usually rise over time, so a fair test compares midterm years with other years.
In the 62 years since 1943 that had no midterm, the same October to June stretch rose 42 times, about two years in three, by 5.0% on average. So the months after a midterm really have been better than usual, by more than three times on average.
One reason is the starting point. In many midterm years stocks were weak until October: in 2022 the index was down 18.8% for the year by the end of October, and it was down more than 20% at the same point in 1962, 1974 and 2002.
Opening Bell Daily reported that in midterm years since 1950 the index fell 17.5% on average from peak to low, and analysts often say stocks recover once the result is in and the uncertainty is gone, as The Motley Fool noted.
Put simply, many rounds of the streak started counting after stocks had already fallen, like measuring a ball's height just as it bounces back up off the floor.
Catch 3: 2026 starts near a record high
This year the index is not starting from a low.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,623.68 on 23 October 2026, up 11.4% for the year, after a record close of 7,818.93 on 6 October.
The Motley Fool pointed out that the Shiller CAPE ratio, a long-run measure of how expensive stocks are, is near the second-highest level in its history. Neither fact says which way stocks will go, but both show that 2026 does not look like most years in the streak.
Ask these 5 questions before acting on a calendar statistic
These questions work for any ‘100% win rate’ statistic.
- Why that start year: check the years just before it.
- How it compares with ordinary years: check the same months in other years.
- How many cases: 21 results is a small sample.
- What exactly is measured: these figures use the index price in US dollars, without dividends. A Thai investor's return in baht also depends on the exchange rate and fund fees.
- What is different this time: check where the market starts from, not only where it went before.
A calendar pattern is a reason to look closer, not a reason to buy or sell. SV News does not give investment advice; if you are making a decision about your own money, talk to a licensed adviser.
What to watch next: the vote on 3 November 2026, which party controls Congress afterwards, and whether the index ends June 2027 above its close on 30 October 2026, the day the next measuring period starts.
FAQ
Did the S&P 500 really rise after all 21 midterms since 1942?
Yes, measured from the end of October to the end of the following June. SV News calculations from Yahoo Finance daily closes show all 21 periods rose, by 16.5% on average.
What happened before 1942?
The two midterms before it, 1930 and 1938, were followed by falls of 12.5% and 17.5% over the same months. Counted from 1930, the record is 22 rises in 24.
Does this mean US stocks will rise after the 2026 midterms?
No one knows. The pattern rests on just 21 cases, and 2026 starts near a record high rather than after a fall. Past results do not guarantee future ones.
How does this affect Thai investors?
A Thai investor's return in baht also depends on the dollar exchange rate and any fund fees, so it can differ from the index figures.
Sources
- Yahoo Finance: S&P 500 (^GSPC) historical data
- Opening Bell Daily: Stock market after midterm elections, S&P 500 up all 19 times
- The Motley Fool: The S&P 500 has never been lower 12 months after a midterm election
- The National Desk: Fact Check Team, 435 House seats and 35 Senate races hit the ballot in November
