Thai inflation hits 3.90%, a 45-month high
Fuel pushed inflation to its highest in 45 months. After reading, you will know how much more your fuel and food now cost, and which state support to use before the end of the month.
Jump to a section
- 1,000 baht of last year's shopping now costs about 1,039 baht, but fuel is up almost 30%
- Write down your fuel and food bills for the month, then cut the item that rose most first
- Use the support you already have before the end of the month, and do not borrow at high interest to cover the gap
- Fuel is the cause, and TPSO expects inflation to stay positive in November
- FAQ
- Sources
Picture a basket of everyday shopping that cost 1,000 baht last year. This October the same basket costs about 1,039 baht. That is what inflation of 3.90% means, the figure the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) of the Commerce Ministry released on 6 November 2026. Inflation is the rise in the overall price of goods and services compared with the same month a year earlier. The reading is the highest in 45 months, since January 2023, up from 2.82% in September, and above the 1% to 3% target band of the Bank of Thailand (BOT) for the first time in more than three years.
1,000 baht of last year's shopping now costs about 1,039 baht, but fuel is up almost 30%
The 3.90% is an average across the national basket, so not everything rose by the same amount. According to figures Bangkok Biznews drew from TPSO, fuel was 29.18% dearer than a year earlier. If you spent 1,500 baht a month on fuel last year, the same amount now costs about 1,938 baht, 438 baht more. Food and non-alcoholic drinks rose 4.26%, prepared food 4.06%, and eggs and dairy 6.90%, the biggest rise in the food group. Fresh fruit got 0.15% cheaper, and electricity fell.
But most of the headline number comes from fuel. TPSO also publishes core inflation, which leaves out fresh food and energy because their prices swing hard, and it was 1.58%, still inside the BOT's target band. Put simply, without the jump in fuel the cost of living would not feel this tight. More than half of this round of inflation came from fuel, The Star summed up. Even a household that rarely drives feels it, because fuel is part of the transport cost of everything on the shelf, and the group covering vehicles, transport and communications rose 10.93%, including school bus and intercity van fares.
Write down your fuel and food bills for the month, then cut the item that rose most first
Before tightening the belt anywhere, see where the money goes. Open your banking app or notebook and write two lines: October's fuel or travel spending, and October's food spending. If you cannot remember last year's amounts, divide this month's fuel bill by 1.29 and the food bill by 1.04 to estimate what you paid a year ago. A food bill of 6,000 baht a month, for example, would have been about 5,755 baht a year ago, a difference of about 245 baht.
Fuel rose by a bigger share, but most homes spend more on food, so the baht difference between the two may be close. Once you know your own numbers, cut where it saves the most. Fuel spending falls when you combine errands into one trip and skip the ones you do not need. If you pay for a regular school run or a van, look at this month's bill, because that group rose too. On food, trim the groups that rose hard: eggs, milk and prepared food you buy often. Fresh fruit and electricity are the two groups where prices fell, so there is no need to rush to cut those.
Use the support you already have before the end of the month, and do not borrow at high interest to cover the gap
If you hold a state welfare card, the November credit arrives on the 1st: 300 baht per person for goods, 750 baht per person for travel on participating buses, trains and boats, and an 80 baht cooking gas discount per person that covers October to December. The full list is on Sanook. The credit cannot be withdrawn as cash and does not roll over, so anything unspent by 30 November is lost. The electricity and water support needs identity verification (e-KYC) first.
The Thai Chuay Thai Plus 60/40 co-payment scheme, approved by the cabinet on 22 September, has the government pay 60% and you pay 40% (see Bangkok Biznews). The limit is 200 baht a day and 1,000 baht per person in total, through the Paotang app until 30 November. The app asked people to confirm their right between 1 and 15 October. If you confirmed, open Paotang and check how much is left. If you did not, check whether the right still shows up before you go to the shop.
One more thing to watch is borrowing to cover the gap. The price rise is about 39 baht for every 1,000 baht you spend compared with last year, which you can handle by adjusting your spending. But if you pay with a credit card or a quick high-interest loan instead, that gap turns into interest you keep paying for months. If money really runs short, cut the groups that rose first, and talk to your existing lender about changing your instalments, before opening a new debt.
Fuel is the cause, and TPSO expects inflation to stay positive in November
Fuel rose because of the energy crisis in the Middle East after attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil-producing sites, which pushed the average Dubai crude price to its highest in 7 months. Floods made some vegetables dearer early in the month, but TPSO sees that as short-term, see The Nation.
Some reassurance: crude oil fell about 10% in the two days before the figure came out, and the BOT has signalled that the jump in inflation may be temporary. The BOT held its policy rate at 1.00% on 28 October. TPSO still expects inflation to stay positive in November, and kept its 2026 average forecast at 1.8% to 2.2%, with the first 10 months averaging 1.77%. Fuel prices remain the thing to watch.
This weekend, spend ten minutes writing down October's fuel and food bills, open Paotang to see what rights are left, and if you hold a welfare card, use this month's credit in full before 30 November.
FAQ
What does inflation of 3.90% mean?
The overall price of goods and services in October 2026 was 3.90% higher than in October last year. Shopping that cost 1,000 baht last year now costs about 1,039 baht.
What pushed inflation up?
Fuel prices, up 29.18% on a year earlier, were the main cause, followed by prepared food, eggs and dairy.
What is core inflation, and what is it now?
It is inflation with fresh food and energy left out. In October 2026 it was 1.58%, far below headline inflation.
Until when can I use the cost-of-living support?
The 60/40 co-payment scheme through Paotang and the November state welfare card credit can be used until 30 November 2026.
