Keith Goldsby says Democrats' win rejects Trump, as in 2006
After reading, you will know what he said in his two-minute reel, which claims match the numbers, which are predictions, and when we will know.
Correction · This story was first published at 14:09 Thai time on 4 November and focused on why the election result does not change the 12.5% tariff on Thai goods. This version summarises the reel by Keith Goldsby that is the story's main image instead. The tariff side is in our election results story from noon the same day.
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Shortly before noon on Wednesday 4 November, Thai time, Keith Goldsby, a US political commentator who makes videos for Instagram, TikTok and Facebook, had just ended a livestream. He then recorded a two-minute reel for Instagram that opens with "breaking news". He announced that Democrats had flipped both the House of Representatives and the Senate, although at that point the Associated Press had called only the Senate and had not yet called the House.
Less than two hours later, at 13:27 Thai time, AP declared that Democrats had won the House, giving them control of both chambers of Congress. But the numbers are not the part of the reel worth hearing. He spends almost all of it explaining what the result means and what Trump faces next. We summarise it below in the order he said it, and set each point beside the numbers that can be checked.
He sees this as a rejection of Trump and his whole party
Goldsby starts with the numbers. He said the night was not over, but if the count stopped now, Democrats would have 55 or 56 Senate seats, and he stressed that a result like this is an absolute rejection of Trump's MAGA movement and the Republican Party. MAGA comes from Trump's campaign slogan, and Americans use it for his most loyal supporters.
The Senate count has not reached his number yet. At 3:33 a.m. US Eastern time, or 15:33 Thai time, the NBC News results page, which uses AP data, stood at 54 seats for Democrats and 44 for Republicans, with 2 seats still uncalled, in Mississippi and Alaska. Democrats have flipped a net 7 seats. If they win both remaining states, they will finish at exactly 56.
He compares it to 2006, when Bush became a lame duck
This is the heart of the reel. Goldsby believes what comes next is a repeat of 2006 under President George W. Bush. He said that after the government admitted there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, the reason given for the war, Americans went to the midterm polls angry and Democrats won both the Senate and the House. This part of the history matches the record. The House elected that year had 233 Democrats to 202 Republicans, according to the US House's own table, and Democrats held the Senate 51 to 49 once the two independents who voted with them are counted.
He went on to say that Bush then became a lame duck, the term for a president who is still in office but whom no one in Congress needs to listen to, because his term is about to end. The Republican Party did some soul searching, its members slowly moved away from Bush, his approval rating fell into the twenties by the end of his term, and John McCain, the Republican candidate for president in 2008, had to convince voters he was not just another Bush.
Both of these happened. The table of Bush's approval ratings kept by The American Presidency Project bottoms out at 25% in October 2008, though the last reading before he left office, in January 2009, rose to 34%. McCain told Barack Obama at their final debate on 15 October 2008: "I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago."
He predicts Republicans will abandon Trump, and may join an impeachment
From the lesson of 2006, Goldsby predicts that Trump is about to be abandoned by his own party in a real way, and that some Republican politicians may even join efforts to impeach him. His reasoning is that independents and some Republicans have just used their ballots to reject Trump. Politicians who do not listen to that will see their time in office end, like those who have just lost in this election.
Impeachment in the US has two steps, rather like being charged and then going to trial. First, the House votes to bring charges by a simple majority, which Democrats will have once the new Congress starts work. Second, the Senate holds a trial, and removing a president from office takes two thirds, or 67 of 100 senators, under Article I of the US Constitution. If Democrats finish with 54 to 56 seats, they would still need 11 to 13 Republican senators to join them. So this remains his prediction, not something any Republican politician has announced.
The example he gives is Greg Abbott
The person Goldsby points to is Greg Abbott, the three-term governor of Texas, who he says stood beside Trump throughout the MAGA years and lost the governor's race this time because of it. The result is true. Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic candidate, beat Abbott, and Abbott conceded on election night. CBS Texas said she will be the first Democrat in more than 30 years to become governor of Texas, since Ann Richards left office in 1995. That Abbott lost because of Trump is Goldsby's own view.
The job is not finished until the results are certified
He closes the reel with a harsh line that history is about to throw Trump in the garbage can, but the more important line is the next one. He warns viewers that the job is not finished, and that they need to make sure the results are certified. Certification is the step where each state finishes checking its votes and declares the official result on its own schedule, weeks after the media have called the races. An AP call comes from analysis of the votes counted so far and is not a legal result.
If you want to know how right Goldsby is, there are two dates to note. On 18 November, Alaska should have finished counting most of its mail ballots, which will show whether Democrats reach the 55 or 56 seats he talked about. And on 3 January 2027 the new Congress starts work. If Republicans are going to move away from Trump the way they moved away from Bush, it will start to show in that Congress's votes. For what this election means for the 12.5% tariff on Thai goods, read our story from noon.
FAQ
What did Keith Goldsby say in his reel?
He said Democrats had flipped both chambers and were likely to get 55 or 56 Senate seats, called it a rejection of Trump, compared it to 2006 when Bush became a lame duck, predicted Republicans would abandon Trump and might join an impeachment, then warned that the results still have to be certified.
How many Senate seats do Democrats have so far?
At 15:33 Thai time, the NBC News results page stood at 54 for Democrats and 44 for Republicans, with 2 seats still uncalled, in Mississippi and Alaska.
Could Republicans really join an impeachment of Trump?
That is still Goldsby's prediction. Removing a president takes 67 of 100 senators, so if Democrats hold 54 to 56 seats, they would need 11 to 13 Republicans to join them.
Sources
- Keith Goldsby (@keith_goldsby) on Instagram: Breaking News, Democrats win House and Senate majorities
- PBS NewsHour (AP): Democrats win control of U.S. House, in major rebuke to Trump
- NBC News: 2026 Senate election results
- US House of Representatives: Party divisions of the House
- The American Presidency Project: George W. Bush public approval
- Commission on Presidential Debates: October 15, 2008 debate transcript
- National Archives: The Constitution of the United States, a transcription
- CBS Texas: Hinojosa defeats Abbott, makes history as Texas' first Democratic governor in decades
