Democrats win US Senate, but Thai tariff stays at 12.5%

If you ship goods to the US, one question has probably been on your mind this morning. Now that Congress is changing hands, will the extra 12.5% tariff that Thai goods pay every day get lighter, and if so, when? Half of that question can now be answered, because only half of the midterm results are in.

Before noon on Wednesday 4 November, Thai time, or before midnight on Tuesday on the US East Coast, the Associated Press declared that Democrats had retaken the Senate after winning seats Republicans had held in six states: North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Iowa. They needed only four, according to an AP report republished by PBS NewsHour. For the House of Representatives, AP said it was still too early to call.

On 2 November, SV News explained before election day that Thailand's 12.5% tariff comes from the executive, not from Congress. Now that results are in, that answer still holds. But some things have really changed, and anyone trading with the US should know them before planning for the end of the year.

The Senate has changed hands, but AP has not called the House

A media race call is not an official result, but it is the signal the world watches.

Major US news organisations call a race in each state when they are confident the trailing candidate cannot catch up, even before all the votes are counted, as the BBC explained. Official results still take days, as each state counts and certifies its votes. AP is the agency many news outlets around the world rely on for results, and it has set a clear rule: it will call control of the House only when one party reaches 218 of the 435 seats, SBS News reported.

Other outlets have moved first. CBS News projected that Democrats will win both the House and the Senate. NBC, CNN and The New York Times have also projected a Democratic House. AP itself reported that Democrats had already flipped seven House seats, when they needed a net gain of only three for a majority. The overall picture points the same way, and only AP is still waiting for the count to meet its own threshold.

As of 12:50 Thai time, the BBC results page counted 52 Senate seats for Democrats and 41 for Republicans, including seats not up for election this year, with 7 still to be decided. In the House, 322 of 435 districts had been called, with Democrats on 202 and Republicans on 120. Put simply, the Senate is settled, but on this count Democrats still need 16 more seats to reach 218, and all of these numbers can move throughout the day.

The 12.5% tariff is still in USTR's hands, and the vote does not cut it

This is where the answer from 2 November still holds word for word.

The extra 12.5% tariff most Thai goods have paid since 24 July 2026 comes from a law known as Section 301, which Congress passed in 1974. The law gives the power to impose tariffs to the Office of the US Trade Representative, or USTR, the agency that handles trade for the US government, subject to the president's direction. In other words, Congress handed this power away when it wrote the law, as the Congressional Research Service (CRS), Congress's research arm, explained in a July report.

Think of the tariff as a tap. The hands on the tap right now belong to USTR and the president, while Congress lays the pipes. If Congress wants to change how hard the water flows, it has to rebuild the pipes by passing a law, which has to clear both chambers and still ends up on the president's desk. So today's result changes who will lay the pipes next year, but not whose hand is on the tap.

As of 4 November, USTR had not announced any change to Thailand's rate, and the new Congress starts its term on 3 January 2027. Until then, the current Congress, with Republicans controlling both chambers, keeps working. For the next two months, exporters should plan as if the full 12.5% tariff is still in place.

What the new Congress can do, and why the veto is still a high wall

Congress is not powerless on tariffs. It just has a longer road than the hand on the tap.

The same CRS report said Congress could amend Section 301, for example by requiring its approval before any tariff is imposed, or by voting to overturn specific tariff actions, though it is unclear whether the second route works for Section 301. Both routes end in the same place: a law the president can block with a veto.

Overriding a veto takes two thirds of each chamber, which means 67 of 100 senators and 290 of 435 House members. If Democrats end up with about 52 Senate seats, as the count stands now, they would still need about 15 more votes from Republicans. Trump has made his position clear. On Tuesday night he posted a picture of his red cap with "VETO" stitched on it and said he has a strong veto, AP reported.

On the other hand, Trump told The New York Times he was willing to accept the results and would probably work something out with Democrats, according to AP. What really changes in the Senate is that Democrats will have more power to investigate the administration and can block Trump's nominees for cabinet posts and judgeships. On tariffs, the AP Voter Poll found that about two thirds of voters think Trump's tariff policies have hurt the economy. That is voters' opinion, not policy.

The nearer route for Thai exporters is still the negotiating table

If the 12.5% tariff is going to fall soon, the most promising route is still talks between the two governments.

Suphajee Suthumpun, deputy prime minister and commerce minister, told Krungthep Turakij on 8 October that she hoped to close the tariff deal with the US in November. At that point the two sides had agreed in principle, with only minor details left to go through legal procedures, and she wanted it signed if the two leaders meet at the ASEAN summit in the Philippines. The Philippine presidential palace has confirmed Trump will attend the summit, which runs from 16 to 18 November, according to the Daily Tribune. All of this is still a target, and nothing has been signed.

The other thing to watch is a second Section 301 investigation that includes Thailand, into excess manufacturing capacity, meaning factories that produce more than the market needs and stay open because of government policy, then push the extra goods abroad. Thai Examiner reported on 3 October that the sectors under scrutiny are cars and parts, machinery, and rubber and rubber products. If your business is in one of these three, news from USTR matters to you as much as the election.

What exporters can do from today

The count is not over, but exporters can start their homework now.

First, check whether your goods are exempt. On the day the tariff took effect, the Commerce Ministry estimated that about 2,120 Thai product lines did not have to pay the extra tariff, worth more than half of what Thailand ships to the US, The Nation reported. But you have to check each product's eight-digit US tariff code, because some exemptions apply only to certain codes.

Then mark three points in your calendar. In the next few days, watch for when AP calls the House. From 16 to 18 November, watch whether Thailand and the US sign their tariff deal at the ASEAN summit. And on 3 January 2027, the new Congress starts work. If Thailand's tariff changes soon, the negotiating route has a timetable that arrives before the congressional one.

FAQ

Have Democrats won both chambers?

AP has called the Senate for Democrats. It had not called the House as of 12:50 Thai time on 4 November, although CBS News, NBC, CNN and The New York Times have projected a Democratic win.

When will Thailand's 12.5% tariff come down?

There is no fixed date. The rate can be changed by USTR under the president's direction, or through the deal Thailand is negotiating, which the commerce minister hopes to close in November.

When does the new Congress start work?

On 3 January 2027. Until then, the current Congress, with Republicans controlling both chambers, keeps working.

Are AP's calls official results?

No. News organisations call races when they are confident the trailing candidate cannot catch up. Official results come after each state counts and certifies its votes, and in some states, such as Alaska, most mail ballot results are not expected before 18 November.

Sources

• PBS NewsHour (AP): Democrats take control of the Senate after winning key midterm races
• PBS NewsHour (AP): Trump says Democrats 'did a good job,' blames Republican candidates for midterm losses
• WTOP (AP): The Latest, voters hand Democrats Senate control
• SBS News: US midterm elections 2026 live results
• CBS News: Live election results for the 2026 midterms
• BBC News: US midterm elections results 2026
• BBC News: When will we know who wins control of Congress?
• Congressional Research Service: Legal authority for Section 301 tariffs to address forced labor and excess manufacturing capacity
• USTR: Press releases, November 2026
• Krungthep Turakij: Suphajee hopes to close Thai-US tariff deal in November
• Daily Tribune: Trump to visit Philippines for ASEAN summit
• Thai Examiner: US raises the stakes on industrial capacity and transshipments
• The Nation: Thailand moves to shield exporters from 12.5% US tariff